Broncos: Nathaniel Hackett, Packers Offensive Coordinator
This seems like the first move on a chessboard.
Anyone who has kept up with the Aaron Rodgers debacle since last April knows that the Denver Broncos have been a team that would likely pursue the 39-year-old signal-caller. Hiring his offensive coordinator seems like the beginning of a plot to lure Rodgers to Mile High.
Aside from his ties to Aaron Rodgers, there isn’t too much on his resume that points to a slam-dunk hire.
He was the offensive coordinator from 2013-2014 in Buffalo and produced the league’s 22nd and 18th ranked offenses, respectively. In three years as the OC in Jacksonville, he produced a top-five offense in 2017, but his other two offenses were bottom-eight in the league. Even when he had Aaron Rodgers, he produced a top-five offense just once in three seasons.
If Hackett is the key to luring Rodgers to Denver then I consider this a huge win for the Broncos. But if Rodgers plays elsewhere in 2022, this could be a major swing and miss for a franchise that is on their third head coach since 2018.
Grade: C
Bears: Matt Eberflus, Colts Defensive Coordinator
This is a head-scratcher to me. The Bears have a couple young pieces that are good enough to build around (Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery, Roquan Smith, Jaylon Johnson), but this is a team that is closer to bottoming out than making a playoff spot.
The defense is veteran-heavy, with most starters on the wrong side of thirty. Not only that, but the defense has been running a 3-4 for the longest time. Eberflus ran a 4-3 scheme and thrived in that. This might be a sign that the Bears are planning on restructuring their defense.
But what about the offense? It is very puzzling that a team would hire a defensive-minded head coach considering that they have almost all the chips pushed in for Justin Fields, who will enter his second season with a 2-8 record as a starter and a TD-INT ratio of 7-10. The Bears are also without their first-round pick and a fourth-round pick from the Fields deal. For a team so heavily-invested in their second-year quarterback, it is surprising that they opted to go with a defense-first head coach like Eberflus. His offensive coordinator hire will be huge and likely determine his fate in Chicago.
I enjoyed watching Eberflus’ defense for four years in Indianapolis. He does a great job at creating turnovers, but his defense has always struggled with two things: third-down and fourth quarters. The Colts surrendered multiple double-digit leads this season in the fourth quarter, where it seemed as if the offense was just walking down the field. If that doesn’t get figured out, it could be a short stay in the Windy City for Eberflus.
Grade: C-
Giants: Brian Daboll, Bills offensive coordinator
In 2021, the Giants ranked in the bottom two of the league in scoring offense, total offense, turnovers, first downs, yds/play, passing offense, rushing TD, TO%, and were dead-last in the league in expected points (-100.13). A fresh face offensively was long overdue.
Daboll was a hot name after he turned Josh Allen into one of the league’s top quarterbacks and finally lands his first head coaching gig after years as an OC in the pros and at Alabama in 2017. Here are his year-by-year numbers, and where his teams ranked in the league offensively:
| 2009 | Browns | 29th |
| 2010 | Browns | 31st |
| 2011 | Dolphins | 20th |
| 2012 | Chiefs | 32nd |
| 2017* | Alabama | 15th |
| 2018 | Bills | 30th |
| 2019 | Bills | 23rd |
| 2020 | Bills | 2nd |
| 2021 | Bills | 3rd |
Depending on how you see that, you can make two assumptions. Either he learned a lot from the tutelage of Nick Saban and Bill Belichick, or he was the benefactor of one of the league’s best QB-WR tandems.
Daboll has never been a head coach at any level, but he brings a lot of experience to New York and should have success there. The Giants have a pair of top-ten picks that they can use to rebuild their league-worst offense, and there are pieces that are worth building around. While the Giants are strapped for cap space (5th-lowest in the league), they have a chance to build a new identity with Daboll taking over.
Grade: B+
Raiders: Josh McDaniels, Patriots offensive coordinator
After years of being interviewed and one week as a head coach in Indianapolis, it seems as if Josh McDaniels is finally settling in a new home. That home is now Las Vegas, as he has been reported as the new Raiders head coach.
Coming in with McDaniels is general manager Dave Zeigler, the Patriots director of player personnel in 2021. That is huge, as he will already have the stamp of approval and a familiarity with his boss.
The biggest question for McDaniels is what he will do at the quarterback position. Derek Carr is entering the final year of his contract in Vegas, and there have been rumors that he could be on the way out with a new regime. The Raiders can save $19M by cutting or trading Carr this season.
I like the McDaniels hire. He has been learning under legendary head coach Bill Belichick for a decade and has two years of head coaching experience under his belt in the AFC West (Broncos head coach from 2009-2010). He was due to get a head coaching gig sometime soon, and I considered him one of the top three candidates this season (behind Dan Quinn and Brian Flores). The Raiders have an opportunity for a fresh start in the next two seasons. They enter 2022 with $20M in cap space (potentially $40M with Carr trade/cut) and then will have the most cap space in the NFL in 2023 with over $150M available cash at their disposal. The Raiders have a good core group of players on the team, and should be competitive in a rugged AFC for the next three seasons.
Grade: A
Vikings: Kevin O’Connell, Rams offensive coordinator
This was arguably one of the most attractive jobs available, and it feels like the Vikings just decided to bunt.
The young core in the Twin Cities is one of the best in the NFL. There is not a better under-30 tandem in the league than Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. There is a young quarterback on the roster in Kellen Mond, which may not be too promising, but it is better than some of the other situations. The defense has some young players to be excited about. And yet, this just feels like a lame hire.
O’Connell has been an offensive coordinator for two seasons, and he hasn’t even been the play-caller (McVay handles play-calling). He has some familiarity with Kirk Cousins, who he worked with as the QB coach in Washington in 2017.
Everyone knows that the McVay disciple is the hottest item on the market, as Zac Taylor is now in the Super Bowl (despite going 6-25-1 in his first two seasons), Matt LaFleur has reached two NFC Championship games in Green Bay, and Brandon Staley (who was a defensive coordinator) had a winning record in year one for the Chargers. Those three head coaches have one thing in common: an elite NFL quarterback. In the case of Taylor, when he didn’t have an elite quarterback, he was one of the league’s worst head coaches. The question now is whether O’Connell can bring in a QB to vault this Vikings team to contention in a weak NFC.
Grade: C
Jaguars: Doug Pederson, former Eagles head coach
I really like this hire for a lot of reasons.
The Jaguars needed an adult in the room. That was not Urban Meyer. This is a very young team that has more potential than most of the league. Trevor Lawrence showed flashes at times last season, and while they were few and far between, there is still hope that he can be *that guy*.
The Jags also went in a new direction with this hire. In the short history of the Jaguars, just two head coaches have had head coaching experience in the NFL before taking the Jags job. Mike Mularkey, who lasted just one season as the head coach, and Doug Marrone, who took them to an AFC Championship Game with Blake Bortles under center.
Doug Pederson has head coaching experience and very good experience. He won a Super Bowl in Philly and would have had much more success if not for injuries and poor management in the front office. In my opinion, Pederson was the best candidate on the market, and the Jags got some stability at the head coaching position.
Grade: A-
Dolphins: Mike McDaniel, 49ers offensive coordinator
A Yale graduate that studied history. If any of you have seen Moneyball, you will know how I feel about this hire.
McDaniel is not the flashy hire that some teams opted for. He isn’t Eric Bieniemy. He isn’t Brian Daboll. He isn’t Doug Pederson. But he is different.
This is a very outside-the-box hire, and sometimes that crashes and burns. But sometimes you (in Brad Pitt’s words) reinvent the game. I’m not saying that McDaniel is going to come in and be the most innovative offensive mind since Bill Walsh but just look at his track record from everywhere he has been.
As an offensive assistant in 2012 with the Redskins, he helped rookie Robert Griffin III turn into a dynamic playmaker, as well as the catalyst for the league’s 4th-best scoring offense. In 2014, he was the wide receivers coach for the Browns. Despite one of the league’s worst rosters, the Browns went 7-9, their best record since 2007, and would be their best record until 2018. In 2015 with the Falcons as an offensive assistant, the Dirty Birds had the 7th-best total offense. They then followed that up with the league’s best scoring offense and a trip to the Super Bowl in 2016. From 2017-2020, McDaniel worked under Kyle Shanahan as the 49ers run game coordinator. In those seasons, the ‘Niners had a top-15 running game three times, including a top-two finish in 2019 en route to a Super Bowl berth. In 2021, McDaniel was promoted to offensive coordinator and is rumored to be one of the biggest influences in using Deebo Samuel as a running back and receiver.
The Dolphins are desperate to fix their image after the Brian Flores accusations and firing. McDaniel is hoping that he can rekindle some of his magic on third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has been quite underwhelming in his 21 career starts.
Grade: B+
Texans: Lovie Smith, Texans defensive coordinator
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Hiring a sixty-something year old head coach that was not a candidate for any other jobs is a bold move. Doing it in the middle of a tear-it-down rebuild is fairly stupid. Doing it two years in a row is head-scratching.
The Texans are quite the dumpster fire, with no clear sense of direction from the front office. They are likely moving on from Deshaun Watson this offseason, assuming that his legal trouble clears. They have not had a first-round pick in the last two seasons. They are in the middle-of-the-pack when it comes to cap space. They have one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. This was not an attractive job for any head coach.
The team was apparently flirting with former NFL head coach Josh McCown for the gig, but following the Brian Flores accusations, the media would have a riot against the organization for hiring a white man with zero NFL coaching experience to lead the franchise, especially after interviewing both Brian Flores and Eric Bieniemy.
Going with an internal hire after firing the head coach following a 4-13 season is one of the most puzzling hires in recent memory. Go ahead and pencil in the Texans for the 2023 #1 pick.
Grade: F
Saints: Dennis Allen, Saints defensive coordinator
This should have been Brian Flores or Eric Bieniemy, but instead the Saints turn to an internal hire who has a 8-28 career record as a head coach.
Allen has done a great job with the Saints defense in his tenure in New Orleans. In the last two seasons, he has two top-five defenses. In five seasons prior, his defense did not crack the top ten.
One could argue that the Saints job is one of the least attractive due to no quarterback, the worst cap situation in the NFL, and one of the league’s oldest rosters.
But they went 9-8 this season with Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemien, and Ian Book starting a majority of the games. They have two young stars in Alvin Kamara (pending legal issues) and Michael Thomas (pending injury recovery) and one of the league’s best offensive lines. The defense was a top-five unit and has some stars in Cam Jordan, Marcus Lattimore, and Demario Davis.
This sounds like a perfect fit for Brian Flores to take over. Flores is 19-14 over the past two seasons with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jacoby Brissett. He can sure as hell win games with this defense and Taysom Hill.
Can Dennis Allen do that? I don’t think so. This was a swing-and-a-miss for the Saints who had an opportunity to capitalize on an NFC that is getting weaker by the week.
Grade: D+
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